Panel Session One

The panel discussed the requirements for long-term fiscal sustainability, including what is meant by fiscal sustainability, why it matters, and how it can be measured. These issues were deliberated in light of New Zealand’s current fiscal framework, the Public Finance Act 1989.

This session also discussed the Treasury’s Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) including its key underlying assumptions (demographic, economic and fiscal), the preliminary fiscal projections, and the sensitivity of the projections to the underlying modelling assumptions.

A. Session 1 Agenda

B. Session 1 Summary

C. Draft Panel Papers/Presentations:

1. Robert A Buckle and Amy A Cruickshank, “The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability“.

2. Paul Rodway, “Long-term Fiscal Projections: Reassessing Assumptions, Testing New Perspectives“.

3. Matthew Bell, “Fiscal Sustainability Under An Ageing Population Structure“.

4. Nick Carroll, “Structural Change in the New Zealand Economy 1974-2012“.

5. Mario Di Maio, “External Influences on New Zealand’s Economic Potential“.

6. Geoff Bascand, “Demographic Projections from Statistics New Zealand: Aims, Methods and Results“.

7. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, “Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue“.

For general enquiries, please contact:

Cherry Chang, Administrator, Chair in Public Finance
Telephone: +64-4-463 9656
Email: cpf-info@vuw.ac.nz

For media enquiries, please contact:

Bryan McDaniel, Senior Communications Advisor
Telephone: +64-4-917 6268; +64-(0)21 817 207
Email: bryan.mcdaniel@treasury.govt.nz

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